Excess inventory

Holiday 2026 returns and overstocks: a November-to-January plan

REMEX · November 6, 2026 · 6 min read

Warehouse floor filled with open gaylord boxes of mixed customer returns and overstock goods awaiting sorting

Holiday 2026 returns need a plan before the holiday sales rush, not after it. For brands, retailers, distributors and Amazon FBA or Walmart WFS sellers, the job is to connect November demand decisions with December overstocks and January returns. Set receiving capacity, resale routes and cash expectations now so excess inventory does not become an unplanned Q1 expense.

What the latest forecasts actually tell you

NRF’s October 2026 holiday FAQ forecasts November and December retail sales growth of 4.2%, reaching $1.013 trillion. That is a sales forecast, not a forecast of units sold or inventory recovery. The same FAQ says new holiday returns insights will arrive in mid-December 2026. Do not present last year’s return rate as a confirmed forecast for this season.

The useful historical baseline is NRF and Happy Returns’ October 15, 2025 report: retailers expected 17% of holiday sales to come back. Its separate 19.3% online return estimate covered annual online sales, not holiday sales alone. Use those figures to stress-test capacity, then replace them with your own category and channel history.

Policy tightening does not remove the workload. CNBC reported on January 7, 2026 that, according to NRF, 72% of merchants had introduced return or restocking fees or limited return options in the preceding year. ReturnPro, formerly goTRG, also found that 75% of surveyed retailers said fraud worsened during the holidays, according to September 23, 2025 coverage in Supply & Demand Chain Executive. These are dated findings, not new 2026 forecasts. They support budgeting for verification and exceptions rather than assuming every return is immediately resellable.

November: build the calendar before the backlog

Record the actual platform windows

Amazon’s October 2026 Seller Central announcement covers purchases from November 1 through December 31, 2026, with returns allowed until January 31, 2027. Apple products have a January 15, 2027 deadline. The extension applies to FBA and FBM, with existing return and refund conditions unchanged.

Walmart Marketplace Learn’s August 31, 2026 update says most purchases from October 1 through December 31, 2026 can be returned through January 31, 2027. Exceptions include wireless phones, major appliances, Dyson products and select seasonal goods, among others. Check the applicable category policy rather than assigning every SKU the same deadline.

Assign owners and capacity this week

Put policy dates, warehouse closures and receiving appointments on one calendar. A customer return deadline is not a promise that goods reach your resale warehouse that day.
Separate unopened overstocks from customer returns in both physical space and reporting. One is available stock; the other still needs verification.
Reserve a returns receiving area and Inspection capacity without blocking outbound holiday orders.
Give operations authority to route inventory within approved channel and price limits. Name the person who approves exceptions.

Build low, base and high return scenarios from your own prior seasons. Forecast inbound units by week as well as refund dollars. A revenue-based return percentage alone cannot tell a warehouse how many cartons to receive.

December: release excess inventory without guessing at returns

Before Christmas, review demand weekly

For each holiday-specific SKU, compare available stock with remaining selling days and realistic demand. Identify excess units while there is still time to find a buyer. Keep ordinary replenishment products separate from dated gift packaging or holiday designs that lose relevance after the season.

Approve resale channels before sharing inventory. Decide whether stock may return to your own store, go to wholesale buyers, or require export or marketplace restrictions. Set a Target sales price using current demand, condition, freight and handling costs, not a fixed share of MSRP. Give each decision a review date so an ambitious price does not become indefinite storage.

From December 26, protect receiving speed

The previous season shows why the days after Christmas matter: CNBC’s January 7, 2026 report cited Adobe data showing returns rose 4.7% year over year during December 26-31, 2025. That is an observed prior-season change, not a projected 2026 increase.

Use a short intake record: SKU, quantity, arrival date, packaging condition, completeness and testing status. Keep sealed, verified open-box and untested returns distinguishable. Hold recalled, unsafe or suspicious units out of resale. The calendar decision is how quickly each group reaches its next action, not how elaborate your grading vocabulary becomes.

January: manage the second wave and Q1 cash

Review backlog every week through January 31

Keep staffing and receiving arrangements active through the extended windows. Track unprocessed returns, days awaiting Inspection, resale-ready units and inventory awaiting a channel decision. If the queue grows, move already verified inventory forward instead of waiting for every return from the season to arrive.

For FBA and WFS inventory, distinguish a customer refund from a removal request, a removal shipment and confirmed receipt. Do not sell inventory as available until its location, count and condition are known. Plan for transit and processing after the customer-facing deadline.

Separate recovery value from cash timing

Maintain a weekly cash forecast showing expected refunds, freight, processing costs, likely resale receipts and settlement dates. Do not fund January purchasing with December gross sales alone. Compare holding stock for another selling period with its storage, financing and handling costs, then revisit the Target sales price when demand changes.

Avoid three mistakes: combining new overstocks with untested returns under one price, shipping removals without a receiving arrangement, and treating a resale estimate as money already collected. A late-January arrival may produce cash later in Q1, not during January.

Where REMEX fits

For inventory in your own warehouse, use the Sell to us form with condition, quantity, location, total retail value, Target sales price and sales restrictions. REMEX aims to review within 24 hours. A review is not an offer and does not guarantee a price or sale. Settlement follows agreed terms; pickup or delivery happens after settlement.

For Amazon FBA or Walmart WFS removals, E-commerce Removal receives removal shipments, performs Inspection and resells inventory. The seller receives 70% of actual resale proceeds, not MSRP, after REMEX’s 30% service fee and any other agreed costs. Proceeds from a month’s sales are settled on the 15th of the following month; unsold units are not included. January sales therefore settle on February 15, which belongs in the Q1 cash plan.

FAQ

Should we apply the 17% benchmark to every SKU?

No. It was NRF and Happy Returns’ 2025 holiday forecast. Start with your own category, condition and channel history, and update assumptions as 2026 evidence arrives.

Should we wait until January 31 to offer overstocks?

No. Known excess inventory can be reviewed separately while customer returns continue arriving. Waiting ties the overstock decision to an unrelated deadline.

Does sending removal inventory create immediate cash?

No. Receipt, Inspection, resale and settlement are separate events. Unsold units do not generate resale proceeds.

Next step

Choose a November review date and a January cash owner. Submit your inventory for own-warehouse liquidation, review E-commerce Removal for FBA or WFS shipments, or contact sourcing@remexliquidation.com before arranging removal deliveries.

Sources

This article provides general operational guidance, not legal, tax or accounting advice. Forecasts and policy announcements are identified by date; verify current category eligibility before acting.

Have inventory like this?

Share your inventory details, target price and sales requirements.

Sell your inventory →